თიბისი კაპიტალის ყოველკვირეული განახლება მთავარი ეკონომისტისგან

გასულ კვირას, მონეტარული პოლიტიკის კომიტეტის გადაწყვეტილება, განაკვეთის უცვლელად დატოვების შესახებ, თიბისი კაპიტალის მოლოდინების შესაბამისი იყო. ამასთან, მნიშვნელოვნად შეიცვალა შერბილების დაწყების პროგნოზი, რომელმაც სებ-ის მიხედვით, მიმდინარე წლის მე-4 კვარტალისაკენ გადაიწია.

იანვრის ინფლაციამ, დეკემბერში დაფიქსირებული 9.8%-ის შემდეგ, წინა წლის ანალოგიურ პერიოდთან შედარებით, 9.4% შეადგინა. თუმცა, ინფლაციის შემცირება იმპორტულ კატეგორიაზე მოდიოდა, მაშინ როდესაც ადგილობრივი საქონლისა და მომსახურების მხრივ, ინფლაციის შემცირებისათვის ჯერ კიდევ დამატებით დროა საჭირო.

წინა კვირაში ასევე გამოქვეყნდა დეკემბრის ეკონომიკის ზრდის წინასწარი შეფასება, რომლის მიხედვითაც, რეალური ეკონომიკური აქტივობის მატებამ კვლავ მაღალი – 11.0% შეადგინა. თავისთავად, მაღალი ზრდა რეფინანსირების განაკვეთის უფრო მოგვიანებით შემცირების არგუმენტია, თუმცა, უნდა აღინიშნოს, რომ მიმდინარე წლისთვის, სხვადასხვა ორგანიზაციის პროგნოზი უკვე 4-5%-ის ფარგლებშია. ეს კი, ინფლაციაზე შიდა მოთხოვნის კუთხით, ზეწოლის დანორმალიზებაზე მიუთითებს.

მიუხედავად ამისა, სადღეისოდ, ლარის საპროცენტო განაკვეთების მარტში შემცირება ნაკლებალბათურია. ამასთან, თიბისი კაპიტალის მოსაზრებით, მონეტარული პოლიტიკის შერბილება სავარაუდოდ უფრო ადრე დაიწყება, ვიდრე წლის ბოლო კვარტალში. ამისათვის, აუცილებელია, რომ ინფლაციის შემცირების არსებული დინამიკა მომდევნო თვეებშიც გაგრძელდეს, რაც პრინციპში არის კიდეც საბაზო სცენარი.

გაეცანით პუბლიკაციას ბმულზე.

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